VeoliaDeal Evidence / independent capstone

Every number, back to its source

One model feeds every figure in this app. Press any figure to see the filed page, the highlighted line, or the calculation behind it.
calculations
261
sourced inputs
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How this was built

The app runs the same formulas as the Excel file, in the same order, so changing a lever here gives the result the file would give. All 12 model checks tie a result to a figure the calculation did not use.

For inputs held as text, a script confirmed that the quoted line appears on the stated page. Web sources are links, not copies, so check them against the original. 9 levers are stated assumptions. Figures stop at 30 September 2026.

What a source looks like

A filed line, highlighted. URD 2024, p.25
A note to the accounts. Amendment to URD 2025, p.53
A results slide. H1 2026 results slides, p.24
A table row. URD 2025, p.391

Documents

DocumentFormatOpen
URD 2025524 ppOpen PDF
URD 2024504 ppOpen PDF
URD 2023548 ppOpen PDF
Amendment to URD 2025, H1 202688 ppOpen PDF
H1 2026 results slides42 ppOpen PDF
Veolia 9M 2026 press release12 ppOpen PDF
Project briefing52 ppOpen PDF
Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65TextOpen
Enviri 10-Q Q1 2026, overviewTextOpen
Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 12ImageOpen
Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16Imagesp.107p.108
EPA 2023 extractsCSVSitesOutboundNational
Calculation modelExcel, CSVExcelInputsCalculations

Model checks: 12 of 12 pass

CheckModelReferenceResult
ROCE 2025 reproduces 9.4%Group return inputs read correctly0.0940.094PASS
Forecast EBITDA 2026 matches Veolia's $200MSeller and buyer agree on the 2026 base201200PASS
Implied LTM EBITDA, high end agrees (2,780 / 17x)BofA range is internally consistent163.7163.5PASS
Ex-RGS 2024 within 100 kt of the 8.7 Mt press figureSupports the RGS reading of the 8.7 Mt figure8,612.78,700PASS
Goodwill + intangibles + PPE + leases close to EV in eurosPurchase accounting lines add up2,7642,767PASS
Net cash impact close to price + leases€2,778M includes both2,7672,778PASS
Clean Earth EBITDA ties to segment accountsNote 16 agrees with the press EBITDA, small adjustments aside155.1158.1PASS
9M revenue bridge adds upEvery revenue effect in the release was read correctly33,31033,310PASS
9M EBITDA bridge adds upEvery EBITDA effect in the release was read correctly5,4035,404PASS
9M revenue by business adds upThe business table was read correctly33,31033,310PASS
Staff + D&A + dividend FY2024 matches brief 25 / 7 / 1-2The brief split is FY20240.3410.340PASS
Model reproduces BofA DCF midpointSame flows and midpoints give the banker's answer within 5%3,054.62,987PASS

Every input

210 of 210 inputs

ItemValueSourceType
Hazardous waste processed, 2024URD 2025 p.226Filed by Veolia
Hazardous waste processed, 2025URD 2025 p.226Filed by Veolia
2027 target as first filedURD 2023 p.27Filed by Veolia
2027 target after RGS saleURD 2024 p.25Filed by Veolia
Months RGS was owned in 2024URD 2024 p.327Filed by Veolia
Hazardous waste treated in 2024, press figureVeolia press release, 31 Mar 2025Web source
Treatment capacity added by 2025 tuck-insVeolia press release, 25 Jun 2025Web source
Short ton to metric tonneEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_national.csvEPA data
Clean Earth, hazardous waste receivedEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_sites.csvEPA data
Clean Earth, of which storage or transfer (H141)EPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_sites.csvEPA data
Clean Earth, shipped onEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_sites.csvEPA data
Clean Earth, shipped to third partiesEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_ce_outbound.csvEPA data
Clean Earth, shipped to Veolia sitesEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_ce_outbound.csvEPA data
Clean Earth, third-party shipments for incineration (H040)EPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_ce_outbound.csvEPA data
of which to VeoliaEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_ce_outbound.csvEPA data
Veolia US sites, receivedEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_sites.csvEPA data
Veolia US sites, of which storage or transfer (H141)EPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_sites.csvEPA data
Veolia US sites, incineration receivedEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_sites.csvEPA data
Clean Harbors and Safety-Kleen, receivedEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_national.csvEPA data
Clean Harbors, incineration receivedEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_national.csvEPA data
US total receivedEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_national.csvEPA data
US incineration receivedEPA Biennial Report 2023, epa_national.csvEPA data
EPA incineration capacity, 2024 baselineEPA national capacity assessment, Jan 2025Web source
Veolia US hazardous volume as it states itVeolia GreenUp page: hazardous waste in the USWeb source
Clean Earth waste recycled or reused, 2024Enviri 2024 ESG reportWeb source
Clean Earth recycle rateEnviri 2024 ESG reportWeb source
Clean Earth hazardous waste recycled or reused, 2024Enviri 2024 ESG reportWeb source
Clean Earth revenue, 2025Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.107Seller filing
Clean Earth operating income, 2025Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.107Seller filing
Clean Earth depreciation, 2025Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.107Seller filing
Clean Earth amortisation, 2025Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.107Seller filing
Clean Earth capex, 2025Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.107Seller filing
Clean Earth total assets, 2025Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.107Seller filing
Clean Earth revenue, 2024Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.108Seller filing
Clean Earth capex, 2024Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.108Seller filing
Clean Earth depreciation, 2023Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 16, p.108Seller filing
Clean Earth adj. EBITDA, 2025Enviri Q4 2025 results tablesWeb source
Clean Earth adj. EBITDA, 2024Enviri Q4 2025 results tablesWeb source
Clean Earth goodwill impairment, 2022Harsco FY2022 earnings release, Feb 2023Web source
Clean Earth adj. EBITDA, 2021Enviri FY2023 earnings presentationWeb source
Clean Earth 2026e revenue, VeoliaVeolia Clean Earth investor presentation, 21 Nov 2025Web source
Clean Earth 2026e EBITDA, VeoliaVeolia press release, 21 Nov 2025Web source
Forecast revenue 2026Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast adj. EBITDA 2026Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast unlevered FCF 2026Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast revenue 2027Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast adj. EBITDA 2027Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast unlevered FCF 2027Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast revenue 2028Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast adj. EBITDA 2028Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast unlevered FCF 2028Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast revenue 2029Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast adj. EBITDA 2029Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast unlevered FCF 2029Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast revenue 2030Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast adj. EBITDA 2030Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Forecast unlevered FCF 2030Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Headline priceEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Paid at closingAmendment to URD 2025 p.46Filed by Veolia
Paid at closing, eurosAmendment to URD 2025 p.46Filed by Veolia
Leases taken onAmendment to URD 2025 p.12Filed by Veolia
Net cash impactAmendment to URD 2025 p.12Filed by Veolia
Preliminary goodwillAmendment to URD 2025 p.53Filed by Veolia
Other intangibles addedAmendment to URD 2025 p.54Filed by Veolia
Tangible assets added (scope line)Amendment to URD 2025 p.55Filed by Veolia
Run-rate synergiesH1 2026 results slides p.15Filed by Veolia
Cost to reach synergiesVeolia Clean Earth investor presentation, 21 Nov 2025Web source
Synergies 2027Moody's credit opinion, 2 Dec 2025Web source
Synergies 2028Moody's credit opinion, 2 Dec 2025Web source
Synergies 2029Moody's credit opinion, 2 Dec 2025Web source
Synergies 2030Moody's credit opinion, 2 Dec 2025Web source
Published multiple, post-synergiesVeolia press release, 21 Nov 2025Web source
BofA trading range, lowEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA trading range, highEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA EBITDA-capex range, highEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA EBITDA-capex range, lowEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA precedents range, lowEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA precedents range, highEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA precedents multiple, lowEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA DCF, lowEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA DCF, highEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA DCF, midpointEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Listed hazardous peer multipleEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Party A, first roundEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Party A, finalEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Veolia, first roundEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Discount rate, North America goodwill testURD 2025 p.399Filed by Veolia
Perpetual growth, North AmericaURD 2025 p.399Filed by Veolia
Discount rate, Water Technologies goodwill testURD 2025 p.399Filed by Veolia
Current income tax rateAmendment to URD 2025 p.23Filed by Veolia
Group financing rateAmendment to URD 2025 p.23Filed by Veolia
BofA discount rate, lowEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA discount rate, highEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA growth, lowEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
BofA growth, highEnviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Price of the 30% stakeURD 2025 p.350Filed by Veolia
Minority net income, Water Technologies, 2024URD 2024 p.416Filed by Veolia
Minority net income, Water Technologies, 2023URD 2024 p.416Filed by Veolia
Hit to group equityURD 2025 p.372Filed by Veolia
Run-rate synergies by 2027URD 2025 p.372Filed by Veolia
Synergies delivered, 2025URD 2025 p.345Filed by Veolia
Synergies delivered, H1 2026H1 2026 results slides p.24Filed by Veolia
One WaterTech integration cost, H1 2026Amendment to URD 2025 p.48Filed by Veolia
Segment revenue, 2025URD 2025 p.342Filed by Veolia
Segment EBITDA, 2025URD 2025 p.341Filed by Veolia
Segment revenue, H1 2026H1 2026 results slides p.20Filed by Veolia
Segment EBITDA, H1 2026Veolia press release, 7 May 2025Web source
WTS EBITDA, FY2024Veolia press release, 7 May 2025Web source
Published multiple, post-synergiesVeolia press release, 7 May 2025Web source
Revenue, 2024URD 2025 p.360Filed by Veolia
Revenue, 2025URD 2025 p.360Filed by Veolia
Personnel costs, 2024URD 2025 p.391Filed by Veolia
Personnel costs, 2025URD 2025 p.391Filed by Veolia
Depreciation and amortisation, 2024URD 2025 p.381Filed by Veolia
Depreciation and amortisation, 2025URD 2025 p.381Filed by Veolia
Operating income, 2024URD 2025 p.360Filed by Veolia
Operating income, 2025URD 2025 p.360Filed by Veolia
Parent dividend paid, 2024URD 2025 p.365Filed by Veolia
Parent dividend paid, 2025URD 2025 p.365Filed by Veolia
Average employees, 2025URD 2025 p.391Filed by Veolia
Clean Earth employeesVeolia press release, 21 Nov 2025Web source
Group EBITDA, 2025URD 2025 p.341Filed by Veolia
Net financial debt, Dec 2025URD 2025 p.334Filed by Veolia
Net financial debt, June 2026H1 2026 results slides p.5Filed by Veolia
2026 organic EBITDA guidance, lowAmendment to URD 2025 p.29Filed by Veolia
2026 organic EBITDA guidance, highAmendment to URD 2025 p.29Filed by Veolia
Disposal planAmendment to URD 2025 p.29Filed by Veolia
Current EBIT after tax, 2025URD 2025 p.352Filed by Veolia
Represented capital employed, 2025URD 2025 p.352Filed by Veolia
Scope 4 erased emissions, 2025URD 2025 p.213Filed by Veolia
Scope 4 target, 2027URD 2025 p.214Filed by Veolia
Forecast capex 2026Enviri definitive proxy, pp.43-65Seller filing
Synergy deliveryLeverAssumption
Seller forecast delivery on EBITDALeverAssumption
Discount rate usedLeverAssumption
Terminal growth usedLeverAssumption
Share of synergy cost in 2027LeverAssumption
2026 organic EBITDA growthLeverAssumption
Share of RGS tonnes in the 2024 KPILeverAssumption
Stake boughtURD 2025 p.372Filed by Veolia
New England Disposal Technologies, net priceURD 2025 p.350Filed by Veolia
Bio-Med Innovations, net priceURD 2025 p.350Filed by Veolia
Ingenium, net priceURD 2025 p.350Filed by Veolia
Months of Clean Earth in FY2026Project briefing p.25Filed by Veolia
Leverage commitmentAmendment to URD 2025 p.29Filed by Veolia
EBITDA target 2027Project briefing p.20Filed by Veolia
Water Technologies synergy deliveryLeverAssumption
Clean Earth injury rate (TRIR), 2024Enviri 2024 ESG reportWeb source
Clean Harbors injury rate (TRIR), 2025Clean Harbors FY2025 results (8-K)Web source
Clean Harbors Environmental Services EBITDA marginClean Harbors FY2025 results (8-K)Web source
Veolia hazardous waste revenue, 2025URD 2025 p.342Filed by Veolia
Veolia hazardous waste EBITDA, 2025URD 2025 p.343Filed by Veolia
Group net income to minorities, 2024URD 2024 p.416Filed by Veolia
Abatement rate for hazardous waste treated, 2023URD 2023 p.214Filed by Veolia
H1 2026 revenue growth at constant scopeH1 2026 results slides p.33Filed by Veolia
Calvert City: civil penalty settled, 2025Enviri 10-K FY2025, Note 12, p.95Seller filing
Calvert City: site project under the settlementEnviri 10-K FY2025, Note 12, p.95Seller filing
Group revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.1Filed by Veolia
Group revenue, 9M 2025Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.1Filed by Veolia
Group EBITDA, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.1Filed by Veolia
Group EBITDA, 9M 2025Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.1Filed by Veolia
Current EBIT, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.1Filed by Veolia
Organic EBITDA growth, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.2Filed by Veolia
Water revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Waste revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Energy revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Hazardous Waste revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Hazardous Waste revenue, 9M 2025Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Hazardous Waste organic growth, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Hazardous Waste growth with tuck-ins, excluding Clean EarthVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Hazardous Waste Europe revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.7Filed by Veolia
Capex on hazardous waste treatment projects, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Water Technologies revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Water Technologies revenue, 9M 2025Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Water Technologies growth at constant scope, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Water Technologies growth excluding Projects, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Water Technologies growth, Q3 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.8Filed by Veolia
Microelectronics bookings, year to dateVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.4Filed by Veolia
Water Technologies synergies, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Net financial debt, September 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Perimeter effect on revenue, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Perimeter effect on EBITDA, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Currency effect on revenueVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Commodity price effect on revenueVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Climate effect on revenueVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Pricing and Commerce effect on revenueVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Currency impact on EBITDAVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Commodity impact on EBITDAVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.9Filed by Veolia
Climate impact on EBITDAVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Growth and Performance on EBITDAVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Disposals already signedVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.2Filed by Veolia
Multiple on signed disposals, 2025 EBITDAVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.2Filed by Veolia
Clean Earth cash out in the 9M net debt bridgeVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Clean Earth people, per the 9M releaseVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.3Filed by Veolia
Net free cash flow, 9M 2026Veolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Financial investments net of disposalsVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.10Filed by Veolia
Dividends paidVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.11Filed by Veolia
Hybrid debt repaidVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.11Filed by Veolia
Employee share plan, netVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.11Filed by Veolia
Capital reduction, treasury sharesVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.11Filed by Veolia
Exchange rate and fair value effect on debtVeolia 9M 2026 press release p.11Filed by Veolia
Quarters left to the end of 2027LeverAssumption
Chameleon Industries, net price (outside the brief)URD 2025 p.350Filed by Veolia
Ingenium staff, estimateWaste Dive: Ingenium, medical waste, VNA leadership, Jun 2025Web source
Ingenium vehicles, estimateWaste Dive: Ingenium, medical waste, VNA leadership, Jun 2025Web source
Ingenium 10-day transfer stationsWaste Dive: Ingenium, medical waste, VNA leadership, Jun 2025Web source
Ingenium revenue, 2021San Diego Business Journal: Ingenium absorbed in global expansionWeb source
New England Disposal Technologies vehicles, estimateWaste Dive: Ingenium, medical waste, VNA leadership, Jun 2025Web source
New England MedWaste autoclave capacity, tons a dayWaste Dive: Ingenium, medical waste, VNA leadership, Jun 2025Web source
Tuck-in multiple stated by VeoliaVeolia FY 2025 results presentationWeb source

Glossary

KPI
A number a company tracks against a target.
URD
Universal Registration Document: Veolia’s yearly filing with the French regulator.
Like-for-like
Comparing the same perimeter each year, without what was bought or sold.
RGS
Veolia North America Regeneration Services: sulfuric and hydrofluoric acid regeneration for US refineries, sold on 1 August 2024.
Storage or transfer (H141)
The EPA code for waste held or moved on, not treated.
Abatement rate
A rate Veolia published until URD 2023 for hazardous waste treated. It measures outcome, not volume.
EBITDA
Operating profit before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
Multiple
Price divided by EBITDA.
Enterprise value
The price of a business including its debt and leases.
Goodwill
The part of a price not explained by identifiable assets.
NPV
Future cash in today’s money, less the price.
Discount rate
The yearly return investors need for waiting and for risk.
Terminal value
Value of all years after the forecast ends.
ROCE
After-tax profit divided by the capital used.
Value added
Operating income plus staff cost plus depreciation and amortisation.
TRIR
Recordable injuries per 200,000 hours worked.