The tonne that did not move

Veolia reports how much hazardous waste it processes. In 2024 the figure was 9.20 Mt. Each block here is 100,000 tonnes.

The KPI rewards volume. It does not ask where the tonnes came from. Buying a plant raises it on the day of closing, without one extra tonne being treated anywhere.

The 2027 target was 10.00 Mt in URD 2023. URD 2024 lowered it to 9.00 Mt, with a footnote on the sale of RGS. Veolia took out 1,000 kt a year.

That is a sensible rule: when tonnes leave, the target follows. The sold blocks are shown here for 7 months of 2024.

2025 reads 9.18 Mt, so reported growth is -0.2%. Without RGS, 2024 falls to 8.61 Mt and growth becomes 6.6%.

That base lands within 87 kt of the 8.70 Mt Veolia gave the press, which supports this reading but does not prove it. Taking out tuck-in capacity leaves 5.4%.

Before the deal these tonnes were already being handled, by the same people in the same plants. How many there are depends on what you count, and Veolia has not said.

The same blocks now sit on Veolia’s plate. The report shows growth. The world shows no change at all.

FY2026 will include seven months: between 9.24 Mt and 11.49 Mt on a flat base. Real change comes later, if treatment moves in-house or the abatement rate improves.

If the target came down when tonnes left, it should go up when tonnes arrive. On the RGS rule it would stand between 9.11 Mt and 12.96 Mt.

Veolia’s documents do not agree on the target today: the URD shows 9 Mt and the April 2026 integrated report shows 10 Mt.